Halmstad 1–3 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

Halmstad

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

IFK Norrkoping

8/13/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 19Örjans Vall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Halmstad56%

×Draw22%

IFK Norrkoping22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HalmstadExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.13

Halmstad

1.94

IFK Norrkoping

1.13

Halmstad creates 72% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.53

creates per match

1.32

0.94

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Halmstad

1.53

IFK Norrkoping

1.32

allows per match

Halmstad

0.94

IFK Norrkoping

2.35

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Halmstad-0.39scores less

IFK Norrkoping-0.32scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Halmstad ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Halmstad or draw

78%

Halmstad or IFK Norrkoping

78%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

44%

Winning margin

Halmstad wins by 2+

33%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Halmstad 1+ goals

86%

Halmstad 2+ goals

58%

Halmstad 3+ goals

30%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

68%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

31%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Halmstad (draw refunded)

72%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Halmstad at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.94 · 7 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Halmstad attack 1.53 + IFK Norrkoping defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.94

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.32 + Halmstad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Halmstad scores more

56%

level

22%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

22%

Halmstad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Halmstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff