IFK Norrkoping 4–2 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dalkurd FF

5/19/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 9Östgötaporten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IFK Norrkoping53%

×Draw24%

Dalkurd FF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.04

IFK Norrkoping

1.70

Dalkurd FF

1.04

IFK Norrkoping creates 63% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.80

1.27

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.67

Dalkurd FF

0.80

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

Dalkurd FF

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

77%

IFK Norrkoping or Dalkurd FF

76%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

47%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

29%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

82%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

51%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

24%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

65%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

28%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

69%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 121 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.67 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

53%

level

24%

Dalkurd FF scores more

23%

IFK Norrkoping at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff