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Dalkurd FF vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
9/22/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 22Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF31%
×Draw23%
IFK Norrkoping46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.39
IFK Norrkoping
1.73

IFK Norrkoping creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 121 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.20
IFK Norrkoping
1.40

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.07
IFK Norrkoping
1.57

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
54%
Dalkurd FF or IFK Norrkoping
77%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
69%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
14%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
75%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
40%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
16%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
82%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
52%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
41%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.40 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
31%
level
23%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
46%

IFK Norrkoping at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalkurd FF vs IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping beat Dalkurd FF 2-0 in Allsvenskan on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gavle.