IFK Norrkoping 3–1 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

AIK Stockholm

V. Lind 54'

A. Traustason 22'

C. Nyman 8'

Rui Modesto 3'

8/21/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 20PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

IFK Norrkoping38%

×Draw27%

AIK Stockholm35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

IFK Norrkoping

1.31

AIK Stockholm

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

1.02

1.49

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.42

AIK Stockholm

1.02

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.49

AIK Stockholm

1.21

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

IFK Norrkoping-0.07on par

AIK Stockholm+0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

65%

IFK Norrkoping or AIK Stockholm

73%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

62%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

17%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

73%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

38%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

14%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

71%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

36%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

52%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.49 · 17 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.42 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

AIK Stockholm attack 1.02 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

38%

level

27%

AIK Stockholm scores more

35%

IFK Norrkoping at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Lind

IFK Norrkoping · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Rui Modesto↳ M. Thychosen

8'

C. Nyman↳ V. Hammershøy-Mistrati

22'

A. Traustason

46'

D. Beširović← M. Thychosen

53'

54'

58'

60'

60'

67'

Í. Sigurgeirsson← V. Hammershøy-Mistrati

67'

J. Durmaz← A. Salétros

68'

68'

75'

81'

88'

K. Höög Jansson← C. Nyman

88'

Y. Kalley← V. Lind

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKAIK

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots19

0.87Expected Goals (xG)2.06

2Corners5

14Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots19

4On Target7

5Off Target6

1Blocked6

6Inside Box15

4Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

312Total Passes513

234Accurate Passes433

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3

Allsvenskan: IFK Norrkoping 3–1 AIK Stockholm

IFK Norrkoping beat AIK Stockholm 3-1 in Allsvenskan on August 21, 2023.

Goals: Rui Modesto (3'), C. Nyman (8'), A. Traustason (22'), V. Lind (54').

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.

IFK Norrkoping vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: IFK Norrkoping 3–1 AIK Stockholm