AIK Stockholm 6–2 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

IFK Norrkoping

I. Coulibaly 85', 69'

I. Pittas 76', 45+1'

M. Thychosen 37'

D. Beširović 15'

A. Traustason 52'

C. Nyman 48'

5/5/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 7Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

AIK Stockholm49%

×Draw24%

IFK Norrkoping27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.20

AIK Stockholm

1.70

IFK Norrkoping

1.20

AIK Stockholm creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

1.27

1.13

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.57

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.13

IFK Norrkoping

1.83

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more

IFK Norrkoping+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

73%

AIK Stockholm or IFK Norrkoping

76%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

51%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

26%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

82%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

51%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

24%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

70%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

34%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

64%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.83 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.27 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

49%

level

24%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

27%

AIK Stockholm at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

I. Pittas

AIK Stockholm · F

9.3

Match Events

8'

Daniel Eid

15'

D. Beširović↳ M. Thychosen

33'

Marcus Baggesen

37'

M. Thychosen↳ Rui Modesto

40'

Anton Saletros

45+1'

I. Pittas↳ M. Thychosen

46'

K. Höög Jansson← A. Sögaard

48'

C. Nyman

52'

A. Traustason

69'

I. Coulibaly↳ I. Pittas

71'

Isak Ssewankambo

71'

Jesper Ceesay← I. Lushaku

72'

D. Salihović← I. Ssewankambo

76'

I. Pittas↳ Rui Modesto

78'

Lamine Dabo← A. Salétros

82'

Í. Sigurgeirsson← A. Traustason

84'

T. Ayari← D. Beširović

85'

C. Björk← M. Baggesen

85'

I. Coulibaly

88'

Ahmad Faqa← M. Thychosen

88'

V. Andersson← I. Pittas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKIFK

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots11

2Corners3

11Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots11

10On Target6

4Off Target2

1Blocked3

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

625Total Passes398

555Accurate Passes330

89%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping

AIK Stockholm beat IFK Norrkoping 6-2 in Allsvenskan on May 5, 2024.

Goals: D. Beširović (15'), M. Thychosen (37'), I. Pittas (45+1', 76'), C. Nyman (48'), A. Traustason (52'), I. Coulibaly (69', 85').

AIK Stockholm controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.

AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Norrkoping