IFK Malmö 4–3 Österlen: Result & Stats

IFK Malmö

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Österlen

6/17/2023

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 12Heleneholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Malmö29%

×Draw21%

Österlen50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK MalmöExpected goals in this matchÖsterlen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.21

IFK Malmö

1.66

Österlen

2.21

Österlen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

1.62

creates per match

1.51

2.92

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

IFK Malmö

1.62

Österlen

1.51

allows per match

IFK Malmö

2.92

Österlen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Malmö+0.00on par

Österlen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Malmö ↓

Österlen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

IFK Malmö or draw

50%

IFK Malmö or Österlen

79%

Draw or Österlen

71%

Winning margin

IFK Malmö wins by 2+

14%

Österlen wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

IFK Malmö 1+ goals

81%

IFK Malmö 2+ goals

49%

IFK Malmö 3+ goals

23%

Österlen 1+ goals

89%

Österlen 2+ goals

65%

Österlen 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

IFK Malmö (draw refunded)

37%

Österlen (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Malmö at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

Österlen away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.69 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Malmö attack 1.62 + Österlen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Österlen attack 1.51 + IFK Malmö defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IFK Malmö scores more

29%

level

21%

Österlen scores more

50%

Österlen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Österlen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff