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IFK Malmö vs Österlen — Ettan - Södra 2019

IFK Malmö
IFK Malmö
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Österlen
Österlen
6/12/2021Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 11Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IFK Malmö39%
×Draw23%
Österlen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Malmö
1.67
Österlen
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

IFK Malmö
1.13
Österlen
1.53

allows per match

IFK Malmö
1.77
Österlen
2.20

finishing

IFK Malmö+0.00on par
Österlen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Malmö ↓

Österlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IFK Malmö or draw
62%
IFK Malmö or Österlen
77%
Draw or Österlen
61%

Winning margin

IFK Malmö wins by 2+
20%
Österlen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

IFK Malmö 1+ goals
81%
IFK Malmö 2+ goals
50%
IFK Malmö 3+ goals
23%
Österlen 1+ goals
81%
Österlen 2+ goals
49%
Österlen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

IFK Malmö (draw refunded)
51%
Österlen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Malmö at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Österlen away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Malmö attack 1.13 + Österlen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Österlen attack 1.53 + IFK Malmö defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Malmö scores more
39%
level
23%
Österlen scores more
38%

IFK Malmö at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IFK Malmö will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Malmö vs Österlen

IFK Malmö and Österlen drew 1-1 in Ettan - Södra on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Malmö Stadion in Malmö.