IFK Luleå 0–5 Umea FF: Result & Stats

IFK Luleå

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Umea FF

8/3/2024

Division 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 15Nyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

IFK Luleå38%

×Draw24%

Umea FF39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK LuleåExpected goals in this matchUmea FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.59

IFK Luleå

1.56

Umea FF

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 46 away

2.29

creates per match

2.09

1.10

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

IFK Luleå

2.29

Umea FF

2.09

allows per match

IFK Luleå

1.10

Umea FF

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par

Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Umea FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw

61%

IFK Luleå or Umea FF

76%

Draw or Umea FF

62%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+

18%

Umea FF wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals

79%

IFK Luleå 2+ goals

46%

IFK Luleå 3+ goals

21%

Umea FF 1+ goals

80%

Umea FF 2+ goals

47%

Umea FF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)

49%

Umea FF (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 2.29 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Umea FF attack 2.09 + IFK Luleå defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Luleå scores more

38%

level

24%

Umea FF scores more

39%

Umea FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff