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IFK Luleå vs Umea FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Umea FF
Umea FF
10/21/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 22Nyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IFK Luleå52%
×Draw23%
Umea FF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Luleå
1.89
Umea FF
1.26

IFK Luleå creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

IFK Luleå
1.40
Umea FF
0.83

allows per match

IFK Luleå
1.70
Umea FF
2.37

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw
75%
IFK Luleå or Umea FF
77%
Draw or Umea FF
48%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+
29%
Umea FF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals
85%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
56%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
29%
Umea FF 1+ goals
72%
Umea FF 2+ goals
36%
Umea FF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
67%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 1.40 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.89

Umea FF attack 0.83 + IFK Luleå defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

IFK Luleå scores more
52%
level
23%
Umea FF scores more
25%

IFK Luleå at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "IFK Luleå will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: IFK Luleå 2–1 Umea FF

IFK Luleå beat Umea FF 2-1 in Ettan - Norra on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Nyabvallen in Luleå.