IFK Hässleholm 1–0 Ariana: Result & Stats

IFK Hässleholm

FT

1 – 0

Ariana

6/4/2022

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 11Österås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Hässleholm31%

×Draw24%

Ariana45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK HässleholmExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.68

IFK Hässleholm

1.35

Ariana

1.68

Ariana creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 13 away

1.78

creates per match

1.77

1.59

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

IFK Hässleholm

1.78

Ariana

1.77

allows per match

IFK Hässleholm

1.59

Ariana

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Hässleholm+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Hässleholm ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

IFK Hässleholm or draw

55%

IFK Hässleholm or Ariana

76%

Draw or Ariana

69%

Winning margin

IFK Hässleholm wins by 2+

14%

Ariana wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

IFK Hässleholm 1+ goals

74%

IFK Hässleholm 2+ goals

39%

IFK Hässleholm 3+ goals

15%

Ariana 1+ goals

81%

Ariana 2+ goals

50%

Ariana 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

IFK Hässleholm (draw refunded)

41%

Ariana (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Hässleholm at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.59 · 85 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Hässleholm attack 1.78 + Ariana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ariana attack 1.77 + IFK Hässleholm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IFK Hässleholm scores more

31%

level

24%

Ariana scores more

45%

Ariana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff