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Ariana vs IFK Hässleholm — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Ariana
Ariana
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
IFK Hässleholm
IFK Hässleholm
10/15/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 26Limhamns Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ariana55%
×Draw22%
IFK Hässleholm23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariana
1.96
IFK Hässleholm
1.21

Ariana creates 62% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

creates per match

Ariana
2.15
IFK Hässleholm
1.50

allows per match

Ariana
0.92
IFK Hässleholm
1.77

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par
IFK Hässleholm+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

IFK Hässleholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ariana or draw
77%
Ariana or IFK Hässleholm
78%
Draw or IFK Hässleholm
45%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+
32%
IFK Hässleholm wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals
86%
Ariana 2+ goals
58%
Ariana 3+ goals
31%
IFK Hässleholm 1+ goals
70%
IFK Hässleholm 2+ goals
34%
IFK Hässleholm 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)
70%
IFK Hässleholm (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

IFK Hässleholm away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 2.15 + IFK Hässleholm defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.96

IFK Hässleholm attack 1.50 + Ariana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ariana scores more
55%
level
22%
IFK Hässleholm scores more
23%

Ariana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Ariana 4–1 IFK Hässleholm

Ariana beat IFK Hässleholm 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Limhamns Idrottsplats in Limhamn.