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IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborgadvanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
7/30/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg24%
×Draw23%
Malmo FF53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Goteborg
1.21
Malmo FF
1.89

Malmo FF creates 56% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

IFK Goteborg
1.85
Malmo FF
2.93

allows per match

IFK Goteborg
0.85
Malmo FF
0.57

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw
47%
IFK Goteborg or Malmo FF
77%
Draw or Malmo FF
76%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
10%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
70%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
34%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
12%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
85%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
56%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
31%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.21

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more
24%
level
23%
Malmo FF scores more
53%

Malmo FF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF

IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on July 30, 2020.