IFK Goteborg 2–0 Gais: Result & Stats | Allsvenskan

IFK Goteborg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gais

L. Skjellerup 63'

K. Þórðarson 36'

9/30/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 25Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

IFK Goteborg31%

×Draw26%

Gais43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchGais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.46

IFK Goteborg

1.19

Gais

1.46

Gais creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.16

creates per match

1.28

1.64

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.16

Gais

1.28

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.64

Gais

1.21

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

IFK Goteborg-0.16scores less

Gais+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Gais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

57%

IFK Goteborg or Gais

74%

Draw or Gais

69%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

13%

Gais wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

70%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

33%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

12%

Gais 1+ goals

77%

Gais 2+ goals

43%

Gais 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

42%

Gais (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

Gais away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.16 + Gais defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gais attack 1.28 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

31%

level

26%

Gais scores more

43%

Gais at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. Þórðarson

IFK Goteborg · M

7.7

Match Events

20'

Jonas Bager

31'

Axel Norén

36'

K. Þórðarson

42'

Alexander Ahl Holmstrom

45+3'

Filip Beckman

59'

S. Ohlsson← J. Bager

59'

A. Trondsen← O. Wendt

62'

C. Amatkarijo← M. Çelik

62'

R. Wendin Thomasson← W. Milovanovic

63'

L. Skjellerup↳ A. Trondsen

71'

Joackim Åberg

72'

R. Friday← H. Ibrahim

79'

A. Boudri← A. Henriksson

85'

Kolbeinn Thordarson

89'

Gustaf Norlin

90'

Gustav Lundgren

90+5'

O. Pettersson← P. Abraham

90+5'

D. Kruse← K. Þórðarson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKGais

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots12

5Corners9

18Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target3

2Off Target6

3Blocked3

6Inside Box11

4Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

295Total Passes420

197Accurate Passes316

67%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0