Gais 2–1 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats | Allsvenskan

Gais

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

IFK Goteborg

A. Ahl-Holmström 76'

A. Henriksson 33'

P. Abraham 90+4'

5/6/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 7Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Gais52%

×Draw24%

IFK Goteborg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaisExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.06

Gais

1.69

IFK Goteborg

1.06

Gais creates 59% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.66

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Gais

1.66

IFK Goteborg

1.05

allows per match

Gais

1.07

IFK Goteborg

1.72

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Gais-0.26scores less

IFK Goteborg+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gais or draw

76%

Gais or IFK Goteborg

76%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

48%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+

28%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals

82%

Gais 2+ goals

50%

Gais 3+ goals

24%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

65%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

29%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)

69%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.07 · 10 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.72 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.66 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

IFK Goteborg attack 1.05 + Gais defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gais scores more

52%

level

24%

IFK Goteborg scores more

24%

Gais at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Wängberg

Gais · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

Malick Yalcouyé

33'

A. Henriksson↳ R. Wendin Thomasson

41'

Kolbeinn Thordarson

43'

Axel Henriksson

46'

S. Ohlsson← S. Hausner

65'

C. Amatkarijo← M. Çelik

66'

A. Ahl-Holmström← J. Cooper-Love

66'

M. Johansson← A. Trondsen

66'

O. Pettersson← K. Þórðarson

74'

J. Lindberg← W. Milovanovic

76'

A. Ahl-Holmström↳ H. Ibrahim

80'

Harun Ibrahim

82'

Oscar Pettersson

83'

N. Tolf← A. Muçolli

83'

L. Carlstrand← M. Yalcouyé

86'

F. Gustafsson← A. Henriksson

87'

J. Åberg← A. Wängberg

90+4'

P. Abraham↳ S. Ohlsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GaisIFK

Overview

32%Possession68%

15Total Shots14

5Corners2

18Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots14

3On Target2

9Off Target10

3Blocked2

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

32%Possession68%

284Total Passes617

198Accurate Passes523

70%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0