IFK Goteborg 3–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Degerfors IF

3/8/2026

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IFK Goteborg39%

×Draw22%

Degerfors IF38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.72

IFK Goteborg

1.75

Degerfors IF

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

1.85

creates per match

2.59

0.85

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.85

Degerfors IF

2.59

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

0.85

Degerfors IF

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

62%

IFK Goteborg or Degerfors IF

78%

Draw or Degerfors IF

61%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

20%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

83%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

52%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

25%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

82%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

51%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

51%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.85 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + IFK Goteborg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

39%

level

22%

Degerfors IF scores more

38%

IFK Goteborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff