Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2018

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
5/19/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Degerfors IF35%
×Draw26%
IFK Goteborg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.29
IFK Goteborg
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 127 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.06
IFK Goteborg
1.29

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.48
IFK Goteborg
1.53

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
61%
Degerfors IF or IFK Goteborg
74%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
65%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
15%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
72%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
37%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
14%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
75%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
40%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
47%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.06 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

IFK Goteborg attack 1.29 + Degerfors IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
35%
level
26%
IFK Goteborg scores more
39%

IFK Goteborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 3-1 in Allsvenskan on May 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.