IFK Goteborg 1–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

IFK Goteborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dalkurd FF

4/19/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 4Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IFK Goteborg49%

×Draw26%

Dalkurd FF25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK GoteborgExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

IFK Goteborg

1.50

Dalkurd FF

1.00

IFK Goteborg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

1.28

creates per match

0.80

1.20

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

IFK Goteborg

1.28

Dalkurd FF

0.80

allows per match

IFK Goteborg

1.20

Dalkurd FF

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Goteborg ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IFK Goteborg or draw

75%

IFK Goteborg or Dalkurd FF

74%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

51%

Winning margin

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

25%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

78%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

44%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

19%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

63%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

26%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

66%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Goteborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.20 · 125 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Goteborg attack 1.28 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IFK Goteborg scores more

49%

level

26%

Dalkurd FF scores more

25%

IFK Goteborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff