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Dalkurd FF vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
9/2/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 20Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF31%
×Draw24%
IFK Goteborg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.36
IFK Goteborg
1.68

IFK Goteborg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.20
IFK Goteborg
1.29

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.07
IFK Goteborg
1.53

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
55%
Dalkurd FF or IFK Goteborg
76%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
69%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
14%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
74%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
39%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
16%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
81%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
50%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
41%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

IFK Goteborg attack 1.29 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
31%
level
24%
IFK Goteborg scores more
45%

IFK Goteborg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Dalkurd FF 1–1 IFK Goteborg

Dalkurd FF and IFK Goteborg drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gavle.