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IFK Eskilstuna vs Atvidabergs FF — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF
6/7/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 11Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

IFK Eskilstuna29%
×Draw22%
Atvidabergs FF50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Eskilstuna
1.48
Atvidabergs FF
2.00

Atvidabergs FF creates 35% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 33 away

creates per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.76
Atvidabergs FF
2.09

allows per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.92
Atvidabergs FF
1.21

finishing

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Eskilstuna ↓

Atvidabergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

IFK Eskilstuna or draw
50%
IFK Eskilstuna or Atvidabergs FF
78%
Draw or Atvidabergs FF
71%

Winning margin

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
13%
Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
77%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
43%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
19%
Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals
86%
Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals
59%
Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
37%
Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Atvidabergs FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atvidabergs FF attack 2.09 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IFK Eskilstuna scores more
29%
level
22%
Atvidabergs FF scores more
50%

Atvidabergs FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: IFK Eskilstuna 2–3 Atvidabergs FF

Atvidabergs FF beat IFK Eskilstuna 3-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.