Atvidabergs FF 1–4 IFK Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Atvidabergs FF

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

IFK Eskilstuna

10/6/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 24Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atvidabergs FF63%

×Draw18%

IFK Eskilstuna19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atvidabergs FFExpected goals in this matchIFK Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.29

Atvidabergs FF

2.47

IFK Eskilstuna

1.29

Atvidabergs FF creates 91% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

2.53

creates per match

1.43

1.16

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF

2.53

IFK Eskilstuna

1.43

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF

1.16

IFK Eskilstuna

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw

81%

Atvidabergs FF or IFK Eskilstuna

82%

Draw or IFK Eskilstuna

37%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+

41%

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals

91%

Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals

70%

Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals

44%

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

72%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

37%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)

77%

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 2.53 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.47

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more

63%

level

18%

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

19%

Atvidabergs FF at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff