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IFK Eskilstuna vs Assyriska FF — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
8/7/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 16Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

IFK Eskilstuna28%
×Draw22%
Assyriska FF50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Eskilstuna
1.47
Assyriska FF
2.02

Assyriska FF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

creates per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.76
Assyriska FF
2.13

allows per match

IFK Eskilstuna
1.92
Assyriska FF
1.18

finishing

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Eskilstuna ↓

Assyriska FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

IFK Eskilstuna or draw
50%
IFK Eskilstuna or Assyriska FF
78%
Draw or Assyriska FF
72%

Winning margin

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
13%
Assyriska FF wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
77%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
43%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
18%
Assyriska FF 1+ goals
87%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
60%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
36%
Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Assyriska FF away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Assyriska FF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.47

Assyriska FF attack 2.13 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IFK Eskilstuna scores more
28%
level
22%
Assyriska FF scores more
50%

Assyriska FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Eskilstuna vs Assyriska FF

Assyriska FF beat IFK Eskilstuna 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.