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Assyriska FF vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
8/19/2023Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 17Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Assyriska FF65%
×Draw18%
IFK Eskilstuna17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assyriska FF
2.47
IFK Eskilstuna
1.18

Assyriska FF creates 109% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Assyriska FF
2.52
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Assyriska FF
0.93
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Assyriska FF+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assyriska FF ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Assyriska FF or draw
83%
Assyriska FF or IFK Eskilstuna
82%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
35%

Winning margin

Assyriska FF wins by 2+
43%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Assyriska FF 1+ goals
91%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
70%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
44%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
69%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
33%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
80%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assyriska FF at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assyriska FF attack 2.52 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.47

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Assyriska FF defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Assyriska FF scores more
65%
level
18%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
17%

Assyriska FF at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Assyriska FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assyriska FF vs IFK Eskilstuna

IFK Eskilstuna beat Assyriska FF 3-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.