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Ifeanyi Uba vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
FT
1 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
11/3/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 1FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba71%
×Draw21%
Adamawa United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ifeanyi Uba
1.81
Adamawa United
0.45

Ifeanyi Uba creates 302% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba
1.27
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba
0.66
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw
92%
Ifeanyi Uba or Adamawa United
79%
Draw or Adamawa United
29%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
43%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
84%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
54%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
27%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
36%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
8%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
89%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.81

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more
71%
level
21%
Adamawa United scores more
8%

Ifeanyi Uba at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ifeanyi Uba vs Adamawa United

Ifeanyi Uba beat Adamawa United 1-0 in NPFL on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at FC Ifeanyi Ubah International Stadium (Nnewi).