Adamawa United 1–1 Ifeanyi Uba: Result & Stats

Adamawa United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ifeanyi Uba

2/14/2021

NPFL · Round 10Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United52%

×Draw28%

Ifeanyi Uba20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adamawa UnitedExpected goals in this matchIfeanyi Uba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.74

Adamawa United

1.36

Ifeanyi Uba

0.74

Adamawa United creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 46 away

0.94

creates per match

0.57

0.91

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Adamawa United

0.94

Ifeanyi Uba

0.57

allows per match

Adamawa United

0.91

Ifeanyi Uba

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Ifeanyi Uba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw

80%

Adamawa United or Ifeanyi Uba

72%

Draw or Ifeanyi Uba

48%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+

25%

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals

74%

Adamawa United 2+ goals

39%

Adamawa United 3+ goals

16%

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals

52%

Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals

17%

Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)

72%

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Ifeanyi Uba away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ifeanyi Uba attack 0.57 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adamawa United scores more

52%

level

28%

Ifeanyi Uba scores more

20%

Adamawa United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff