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IF Ready vs Pors Grenland II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

IF Ready
IF Ready
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pors Grenland II
Pors Grenland II
6/1/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 8AJ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Ready75%
×Draw13%
Pors Grenland II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Ready
3.54
Pors Grenland II
1.42

IF Ready creates 149% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

IF Ready
2.46
Pors Grenland II
0.92

allows per match

IF Ready
1.92
Pors Grenland II
4.62

finishing

IF Ready+0.00on par
Pors Grenland II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Ready ↓

Pors Grenland II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

IF Ready or draw
88%
IF Ready or Pors Grenland II
87%
Draw or Pors Grenland II
25%

Winning margin

IF Ready wins by 2+
57%
Pors Grenland II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

IF Ready 1+ goals
97%
IF Ready 2+ goals
86%
IF Ready 3+ goals
66%
Pors Grenland II 1+ goals
76%
Pors Grenland II 2+ goals
41%
Pors Grenland II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IF Ready (draw refunded)
86%
Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Ready at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Pors Grenland II away — creates 0.92, concedes 4.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Ready attack 2.46 + Pors Grenland II defence 4.62 → ÷2 → 3.54

Pors Grenland II attack 0.92 + IF Ready defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

IF Ready scores more
75%
level
13%
Pors Grenland II scores more
12%

IF Ready at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "IF Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Ready vs Pors Grenland II

IF Ready beat Pors Grenland II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at AJ Arena in Sandvika.