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IF Karlstad II vs Angered BK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

IF Karlstad II
IF Karlstad II
FT
2 – 3
Angered BK
Angered BK
10/30/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 1Klasmossen IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

IF Karlstad II35%
×Draw21%
Angered BK44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Karlstad II
1.91
Angered BK
2.15

Angered BK creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

IF Karlstad II
1.78
Angered BK
1.96

allows per match

IF Karlstad II
2.33
Angered BK
2.04

finishing

IF Karlstad II+0.00on par
Angered BK+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Karlstad II ↓

Angered BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

IF Karlstad II or draw
56%
IF Karlstad II or Angered BK
79%
Draw or Angered BK
65%

Winning margin

IF Karlstad II wins by 2+
18%
Angered BK wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

IF Karlstad II 1+ goals
85%
IF Karlstad II 2+ goals
57%
IF Karlstad II 3+ goals
30%
Angered BK 1+ goals
88%
Angered BK 2+ goals
63%
Angered BK 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

IF Karlstad II (draw refunded)
44%
Angered BK (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Karlstad II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

Angered BK away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Karlstad II attack 1.78 + Angered BK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.91

Angered BK attack 1.96 + IF Karlstad II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IF Karlstad II scores more
35%
level
21%
Angered BK scores more
44%

Angered BK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Angered BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IF Karlstad II vs Angered BK

Angered BK beat IF Karlstad II 3-2 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Klasmossen IP Konstgräs in Karlstad.