Angered BK 4–2 IF Karlstad II: Result & Stats

Angered BK

FT

4 – 2

IF Karlstad II

7/3/2021

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 17Hjällbovallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Angered BK46%

×Draw21%

IF Karlstad II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angered BKExpected goals in this matchIF Karlstad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.82

Angered BK

2.18

IF Karlstad II

1.82

Angered BK creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

2.22

creates per match

1.39

2.26

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Angered BK

2.22

IF Karlstad II

1.39

allows per match

Angered BK

2.26

IF Karlstad II

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angered BK+0.00on par

IF Karlstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angered BK ↓

IF Karlstad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Angered BK or draw

67%

Angered BK or IF Karlstad II

79%

Draw or IF Karlstad II

54%

Winning margin

Angered BK wins by 2+

27%

IF Karlstad II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Angered BK 1+ goals

89%

Angered BK 2+ goals

64%

Angered BK 3+ goals

37%

IF Karlstad II 1+ goals

84%

IF Karlstad II 2+ goals

54%

IF Karlstad II 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Angered BK (draw refunded)

59%

IF Karlstad II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angered BK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 2.26 · 27 matches

IF Karlstad II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angered BK attack 2.22 + IF Karlstad II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.18

IF Karlstad II attack 1.39 + Angered BK defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Angered BK scores more

46%

level

21%

IF Karlstad II scores more

33%

Angered BK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Angered BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff