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IF Gnistan vs Åland United W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Åland United W
Åland United W
5/31/2026Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

IF Gnistan36%
×Draw22%
Åland United W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Gnistan
1.80
Åland United W
1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 73 away

creates per match

IF Gnistan
2.17
Åland United W
2.23

allows per match

IF Gnistan
1.67
Åland United W
1.44

finishing

IF Gnistan+0.00on par
Åland United W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Gnistan ↓

Åland United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

IF Gnistan or draw
58%
IF Gnistan or Åland United W
78%
Draw or Åland United W
64%

Winning margin

IF Gnistan wins by 2+
19%
Åland United W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

IF Gnistan 1+ goals
83%
IF Gnistan 2+ goals
54%
IF Gnistan 3+ goals
27%
Åland United W 1+ goals
86%
Åland United W 2+ goals
58%
Åland United W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

IF Gnistan (draw refunded)
46%
Åland United W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Gnistan at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Åland United W away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.44 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Gnistan attack 2.17 + Åland United W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Åland United W attack 2.23 + IF Gnistan defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IF Gnistan scores more
36%
level
22%
Åland United W scores more
42%

Åland United W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Åland United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansallinen Liiga: IF Gnistan 1–4 Åland United W

Åland United W beat IF Gnistan 4-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on May 31, 2026.