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Åland United W vs IF Gnistan — Kansallinen Liiga 2026

Åland United W
Åland United W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan
3/28/2026Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Åland United W71%
×Draw16%
IF Gnistan13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åland United W
2.79
IF Gnistan
1.13

Åland United W creates 147% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 6 away

creates per match

Åland United W
2.42
IF Gnistan
1.00

allows per match

Åland United W
1.26
IF Gnistan
3.17

finishing

Åland United W+0.00on par
IF Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åland United W ↓

IF Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Åland United W or draw
87%
Åland United W or IF Gnistan
84%
Draw or IF Gnistan
29%

Winning margin

Åland United W wins by 2+
51%
IF Gnistan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Åland United W 1+ goals
94%
Åland United W 2+ goals
76%
Åland United W 3+ goals
52%
IF Gnistan 1+ goals
68%
IF Gnistan 2+ goals
31%
IF Gnistan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Åland United W (draw refunded)
85%
IF Gnistan (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åland United W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

IF Gnistan away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åland United W attack 2.42 + IF Gnistan defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.79

IF Gnistan attack 1.00 + Åland United W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Åland United W scores more
71%
level
16%
IF Gnistan scores more
13%

Åland United W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Åland United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kansallinen Liiga: Åland United W 6–1 IF Gnistan

Åland United W beat IF Gnistan 6-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on March 28, 2026.