IF Elfsborg 0–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

IF Elfsborg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dalkurd FF

10/30/2018

Allsvenskan · Round 28Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IF Elfsborg56%

×Draw23%

Dalkurd FF21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF ElfsborgExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.98

IF Elfsborg

1.77

Dalkurd FF

0.98

IF Elfsborg creates 81% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 15 away

1.80

creates per match

0.80

1.16

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

IF Elfsborg

1.80

Dalkurd FF

0.80

allows per match

IF Elfsborg

1.16

Dalkurd FF

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw

79%

IF Elfsborg or Dalkurd FF

77%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

44%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

31%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

83%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

53%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

26%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

62%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

26%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

73%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 127 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.80 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dalkurd FF attack 0.80 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more

56%

level

23%

Dalkurd FF scores more

21%

IF Elfsborg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff