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Dalkurd FF vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
5/24/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dalkurd FF30%
×Draw24%
IF Elfsborg47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.32
IF Elfsborg
1.72

IF Elfsborg creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.20
IF Elfsborg
1.37

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
2.07
IF Elfsborg
1.44

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
53%
Dalkurd FF or IF Elfsborg
76%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
70%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
13%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
73%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
38%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
15%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
82%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
51%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
39%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.44 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.20 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

IF Elfsborg attack 1.37 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
30%
level
24%
IF Elfsborg scores more
47%

IF Elfsborg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Dalkurd FF 1–4 IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat Dalkurd FF 4-1 in Allsvenskan on May 24, 2018.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gavle.