IF Brommapojkarna 2–3 Landskrona BoIS

IF Brommapojkarna

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Landskrona BoIS

N. Vasic 84'

O. Pettersson 28' (pen)

M. Widell 74', 57'

O. Diawara 4'

2/26/2023

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna40%

×Draw25%

Landskrona BoIS35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF BrommapojkarnaExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.41

IF Brommapojkarna

1.53

Landskrona BoIS

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

1.50

1.31

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.38

Landskrona BoIS

1.50

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna

1.31

Landskrona BoIS

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw

65%

IF Brommapojkarna or Landskrona BoIS

75%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

60%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

20%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

78%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

45%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

20%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

76%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

41%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

54%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.38 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.50 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

40%

level

25%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

35%

IF Brommapojkarna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

O. Diawara

28'

O. PetterssonPenalty

40'

52'

57'

60'

67'

M. Ćosić← L. Fritzson

67'

R. Omorowa← K. Ackermann

67'

A. Tkacz← J. Strid

74'

M. Widell

78'

M. Nilsson← A. Egnell

82'

L. Tahwildaran← M. Jelassi

84'

N. Vasic

90+4'

E. Hedenquist

IF

Landskrona

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

26

Manager: O. Mellberg

67'▲M. Ćosić←▼L. Fritzson

67'▲R. Omorowa←▼K. Ackermann

82'▲L. Tahwildaran←▼M. Jelassi

IF Brommapojkarna substitutes

ĆosićOmorowaTahwildaranThorellKroonHeggem31Melkemichel

Manager: B. Magnusson

60'▲K. Asare←▼O. Diawara

67'▲A. Tkacz←▼J. Strid

78'▲M. Nilsson←▼A. Egnell

Landskrona BoIS substitutes

AsareTkaczNilssonKaddouraPerelmanDzabicHegdalSundberg

Svenska Cupen: IF Brommapojkarna 2–3 Landskrona BoIS

Landskrona BoIS beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on February 26, 2023.

Goals: O. Diawara (4'), O. Pettersson (28' pen), M. Widell (57', 74'), N. Vasic (84').

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.

IF Brommapojkarna vs Landskrona BoIS — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Svenska Cupen: IF Brommapojkarna 2–3 Landskrona BoIS