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IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2026

IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
P. Hellquist 27'
8/15/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 19Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

IF Brommapojkarna51%
×Draw24%
AFC Eskilstuna25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Brommapojkarna
1.74
AFC Eskilstuna
1.16

IF Brommapojkarna creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 75 away

creates per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.87
AFC Eskilstuna
1.00

allows per match

IF Brommapojkarna
1.32
AFC Eskilstuna
1.60

finishing

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Brommapojkarna ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

IF Brommapojkarna or draw
75%
IF Brommapojkarna or AFC Eskilstuna
76%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
49%

Winning margin

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
28%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
82%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
52%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
25%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
69%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
32%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
67%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Brommapojkarna at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.87 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

IF Brommapojkarna scores more
51%
level
24%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
25%

IF Brommapojkarna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
P. Hellquist
29'
Samir Maarouf
63'
N. Maripuu← O. Pettersson
63'
N. Vasic← P. Hellquist
69'
E. Agyemang Duah← A. Alsanati
69'
I. Shamoun← V. Götesson
70'
A. Ekeroth← S. Maarouf
79'
T. Söderström← M. Ćosić
79'
R. Frej← T. Bergvall
89'
Y. Rafael← Alexander Michel
89'
L. Sabah← A. Hudu
90+5'
Nikola Vasic

Shots

10IF

Statistics

IFAFC
Overview
10Total Shots14
4Corners4
16Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots14
3On Target8
7Off Target2
Goalkeeping
8Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna

IF Brommapojkarna beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 in Superettan on August 15, 2022.

Goals: P. Hellquist (27').

The match was played at Grimsta IP in Stockholm.