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AFC Eskilstuna vs IF Brommapojkarna — Superettan 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
A. Alsanati 90+4'
Felix Michel 13'
A. Muhsin 8'
W. Odefalk 62'
7/3/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 12Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna46%
×Draw25%
IF Brommapojkarna29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.23

AFC Eskilstuna creates 31% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.60
IF Brommapojkarna
1.50

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.96
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
71%
AFC Eskilstuna or IF Brommapojkarna
75%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
54%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
24%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
80%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
48%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
22%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
71%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
35%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
61%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.60 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.50 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
46%
level
25%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
29%

AFC Eskilstuna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Muhsin
13'
Felix Michel
49'
Viktor Gotesson
62'
W. Odefalk
63'
Felix Michel
69'
S. Maarouf← V. Götesson
69'
A. Coffey← A. Muhsin
69'
A. Ekeroth← Y. Rafael
73'
R. Deprem← O. Pettersson
77'
Mikael Marques
80'
L. Sabah← V. Fors
80'
I. Shamoun← A. Hudu
80'
A. Abrahamsson← O. Krusnell
80'
N. Maripuu← W. Odefalk
83'
Abdelkarim Chaouche
90'
Sabah Lawson
90+3'
R. Omorowa← M. Jelassi
90+4'
A. Alsanati

Possession

37%AFC

Shots

8AFC

Statistics

AFCIF
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots13
4Corners5
14Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots13
5On Target5
3Off Target8
Passing
37%Possession63%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls17
5Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 3–1 IF Brommapojkarna

AFC Eskilstuna beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 in Superettan on July 3, 2022.

Goals: A. Muhsin (8'), Felix Michel (13'), W. Odefalk (62'), A. Alsanati (90+4').

IF Brommapojkarna controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.