Iceland 0–1 France: Result & Stats

Iceland

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

France

O. Giroud 66' (pen)

10/11/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Iceland46%

×Draw29%

France26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IcelandExpected goals in this matchFrance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.89

Iceland

1.29

France

0.89

Iceland creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

1.27

0.50

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Iceland

1.67

France

1.27

allows per match

Iceland

0.50

France

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par

France+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

France →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Iceland or draw

74%

Iceland or France

71%

Draw or France

54%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+

21%

France wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals

72%

Iceland 2+ goals

37%

Iceland 3+ goals

14%

France 1+ goals

59%

France 2+ goals

22%

France 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)

64%

France (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

France away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.67 + France defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

France attack 1.27 + Iceland defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Iceland scores more

46%

level

29%

France scores more

26%

Iceland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Griezmann

France · F

8.4

Match Events

16'

J. Böðvarsson← J. Guðmundsson

29'

Olivier Giroud

43'

Ragnar Sigurðsson

63'

Rúnar Már Sigurjónsson

66'

O. GiroudPenalty

68'

Benjamin Pavard

73'

A. Finnbogason← R. Sigurjónsson

78'

W. Ben Yedder← O. Giroud

81'

A. Sigurdsson← A. Traustason

87'

Corentin Tolisso

88'

J. Ikoné← K. Coman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IcelandFrance

Overview

29%Possession71%

6Total Shots22

3Corners7

12Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots22

1On Target6

3Off Target10

2Blocked6

4Inside Box12

2Outside Box10

Passing

29%Possession71%

284Total Passes697

187Accurate Passes600

66%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2