France 2–1 Iceland: Result & Stats | League #32

France

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Iceland

B. Barcola 62'

K. Mbappe 45' (pen)

A. Gudjohnsen 21'

9/9/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 6Parc des Princes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

France59%

×Draw23%

Iceland18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FranceExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.83

France

1.75

Iceland

0.83

France creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

France

2.50

Iceland

1.00

allows per match

France

0.67

Iceland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

France+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

France or draw

82%

France or Iceland

77%

Draw or Iceland

41%

Winning margin

France wins by 2+

34%

Iceland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

France 1+ goals

83%

France 2+ goals

52%

France 3+ goals

25%

Iceland 1+ goals

56%

Iceland 2+ goals

20%

Iceland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

France (draw refunded)

77%

Iceland (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Iceland away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France attack 2.50 + Iceland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Iceland attack 1.00 + France defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

France scores more

59%

level

23%

Iceland scores more

18%

France at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "France will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Mbappe

France · F

8.2

Match Events

21'

A. Gudjohnsen

29'

Manu Koné

43'

Marcus ThuramPenalty confirmed

44'

Mikael Anderson

45'

K. MbappePenalty

54'

Theo Hernández

62'

B. Barcola↳ K. Mbappe

63'

K. Coman← B. Barcola

63'

M. Gusto← J. Kounde

63'

B. Bjarkason← M. Anderson

64'

S. Magnusson← D. T. Gudjohnsen

67'

Andri Guðjohnsen

68'

Aurélien Tchouaméni

68'

Aurélien TchouaméniCard upgrade

70'

A. Rabiot← M. Thuram

70'

T. J. Helgason← J. D. Thorsteinsson

70'

S. T. Thordarson← I. Johannesson

82'

K. Hlynsson← D. L. Gretarsson

89'

Andri GuðjohnsenGoal cancelled

90+2'

Kylian Mbappé

90+6'

H. Ekitike← M. Olise

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FranceIceland

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots7

3.77Expected Goals (xG)0.80

3Corners2

12Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots7

8On Target2

8Off Target4

4Blocked1

13Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

623Total Passes366

560Accurate Passes300

90%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1