Iceland 2–0 andorra: Result & Stats

Iceland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

andorra

K. Sigþórsson 65'

A. Sigurdsson 38'

10/14/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iceland74%

×Draw21%

andorra5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IcelandExpected goals in this matchandorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.25

Iceland

1.71

andorra

0.25

Iceland creates 584% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

0.00

0.50

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Iceland

1.67

andorra

0.00

allows per match

Iceland

0.50

andorra

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par

andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No82
Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–14%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–021%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Iceland or draw

95%

Iceland or andorra

79%

Draw or andorra

26%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+

45%

andorra wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals

82%

Iceland 2+ goals

51%

Iceland 3+ goals

24%

andorra 1+ goals

22%

andorra 2+ goals

3%

andorra 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)

94%

andorra (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

andorra away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.67 + andorra defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

andorra attack 0.00 + Iceland defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Iceland scores more

74%

level

21%

andorra scores more

5%

Iceland at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Sigþórsson

Iceland · F

7.8

Match Events

38'

A. Sigurdsson

60'

Cucu← Marcio Vieira

64'

J. Böðvarsson← A. Finnbogason

65'

Ildefons Lima

65'

K. Sigþórsson↳ R. Sigurðsson

68'

S. Ingason← R. Sigurðsson

70'

E. Hallfreðsson← B. Bjarnason

80'

Victor Pálsson

80'

Marc García← Alexandre Martínez

87'

Sebastiá Gómez← Jordi Aláez

90'

Marc Rebés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Icelandandorra

Overview

69%Possession31%

17Total Shots6

8Corners1

14Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots6

7On Target2

6Off Target3

4Blocked1

10Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

471Total Passes224

362Accurate Passes102

77%Pass Accuracy46%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2