andorra 0–2 Iceland: Result & Stats

andorra

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Iceland

V. Kjartansson 80'

B. Bjarnason 22'

3/22/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

andorra36%

×Draw25%

Iceland39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

andorraExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.46

andorra

1.38

Iceland

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.25

creates per match

1.17

1.75

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

andorra

0.25

Iceland

1.17

allows per match

andorra

1.75

Iceland

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

andorra+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

andorra ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

andorra or draw

61%

andorra or Iceland

75%

Draw or Iceland

64%

Winning margin

andorra wins by 2+

16%

Iceland wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

andorra 1+ goals

75%

andorra 2+ goals

40%

andorra 3+ goals

16%

Iceland 1+ goals

77%

Iceland 2+ goals

43%

Iceland 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

andorra (draw refunded)

48%

Iceland (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

andorra at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Iceland away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

andorra attack 0.25 + Iceland defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Iceland attack 1.17 + andorra defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

andorra scores more

36%

level

25%

Iceland scores more

39%

Iceland at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

B. Bjarnason

Iceland · M

8.1

Match Events

20'

Marcio Vieira

22'

B. Bjarnason↳ R. Sigurðsson

40'

Jesus Rubio

47'

Cristian Martinez

63'

R. Sigurjónsson← A. Gunnarsson

70'

V. Kjartansson← A. Finnbogason

71'

Jordi Aláez← Alexandre Martínez

80'

V. Kjartansson↳ B. Sævarsson

81'

Ludo← Cristian Martínez

82'

Marc Rebés

83'

A. Traustason← J. Guðmundsson

87'

Juli Sánchez← Chus Rubio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

andorraIceland

Overview

24%Possession76%

4Total Shots14

7Corners4

19Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots14

2On Target4

0Off Target6

2Blocked4

0Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

24%Possession76%

193Total Passes606

96Accurate Passes514

50%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls10

4Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2