Iceland 1–0 Albania: Result & Stats

Iceland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Albania

J. Guðmundsson 22'

6/8/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Laugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Iceland49%

×Draw25%

Albania25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IcelandExpected goals in this matchAlbania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.04

Iceland

1.55

Albania

1.04

Iceland creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

1.57

0.50

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Iceland

1.67

Albania

1.57

allows per match

Iceland

0.50

Albania

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland+0.00on par

Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland ↓

Albania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Iceland or draw

75%

Iceland or Albania

75%

Draw or Albania

51%

Winning margin

Iceland wins by 2+

25%

Albania wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Iceland 1+ goals

79%

Iceland 2+ goals

46%

Iceland 3+ goals

20%

Albania 1+ goals

65%

Albania 2+ goals

28%

Albania 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Iceland (draw refunded)

66%

Albania (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Albania away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland attack 1.67 + Albania defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Albania attack 1.57 + Iceland defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Iceland scores more

49%

level

25%

Albania scores more

25%

Iceland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Iceland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Halldórsson

Iceland · G

7.4

Match Events

22'

Migjen Basha

22'

J. Guðmundsson↳ B. Bjarnason

33'

Rúnar Már Sigurjónsson

56'

A. Traustason← J. Guðmundsson

63'

K. Sigþórsson← V. Kjartansson

68'

E. Kaçe← M. Basha

72'

E. Ndoj← T. Xhaka

80'

A. Sadiku← S. Cikalleshi

81'

A. Sigurdsson← R. Sigurjónsson

88'

Frédéric Veseli

88'

Kastriot Dermaku

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IcelandAlbania

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots8

1Corners7

19Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target2

4Off Target2

2Blocked4

5Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

340Total Passes393

243Accurate Passes293

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1