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Albania vs Iceland — Euro Championship 2024

Albania
Albania
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Iceland
Iceland
S. Cikalleshi 82'
O. Roshi 79'
E. Hysaj 52'
K. Dermaku 32'
K. Sigþórsson 58'
G. Sigurðsson 47'
9/10/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Albania51%
×Draw23%
Iceland27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania
1.85
Iceland
1.28

Albania creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Albania
1.20
Iceland
1.17

allows per match

Albania
1.40
Iceland
2.50

finishing

Albania+0.00on par
Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Iceland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Albania or draw
73%
Albania or Iceland
77%
Draw or Iceland
49%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+
28%
Iceland wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals
84%
Albania 2+ goals
55%
Albania 3+ goals
28%
Iceland 1+ goals
72%
Iceland 2+ goals
37%
Iceland 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)
66%
Iceland (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Iceland away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.20 + Iceland defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Iceland attack 1.17 + Albania defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Albania scores more
51%
level
23%
Iceland scores more
27%

Albania at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. MemushajAlbaniaAlbania · M
7.8

Match Events

32'
K. Dermaku↳ L. Memushaj
37'
Kári Árnason
47'
G. Sigurðsson↳ R. Sigurjónsson
52'
E. Hysaj↳ R. Manaj
56'
Sokol Cikalleshi
56'
K. Sigþórsson← E. Hallfreðsson
58'
K. Sigþórsson↳ K. Árnason
62'
O. Roshi← E. Lenjani
66'
F. Veseli← B. Djimsiti
71'
H. Magnússon← B. Bjarnason
73'
A. Abrashi← E. Hysaj
79'
O. Roshi↳ K. Bare
81'
Thomas Strakosha
82'
S. Cikalleshi
85'
Odise Roshi
85'
V. Kjartansson← J. Böðvarsson

Possession

60%Albania

Shots

17Albania

Pass accuracy

52%Albania

Statistics

AlbaniaIceland
Overview
60%Possession40%
17Total Shots17
4Corners1
11Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots17
5On Target4
6Off Target9
6Blocked4
9Inside Box9
8Outside Box8
Passing
60%Possession40%
536Total Passes356
430Accurate Passes259
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Euro Championship: Albania 4–2 Iceland

Albania beat Iceland 4-2 in Euro Championship on September 10, 2019.

Goals: K. Dermaku (32'), G. Sigurðsson (47'), E. Hysaj (52'), K. Sigþórsson (58'), O. Roshi (79'), S. Cikalleshi (82').

Albania controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 17.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.