Iceland U19 0–3 Romania U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Romania U19

M. Toma 64'

A. Stoian 34'

T. Tomsa 18'

11/18/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Iceland U1945%

×Draw27%

Romania U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchRomania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.04

Iceland U19

1.41

Romania U19

1.04

Iceland U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

1.09

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.45

Romania U19

1.09

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Romania U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Romania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Romania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

72%

Iceland U19 or Romania U19

73%

Draw or Romania U19

55%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

22%

Romania U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

76%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

41%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

17%

Romania U19 1+ goals

65%

Romania U19 2+ goals

28%

Romania U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Romania U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Romania U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.45 + Romania U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Romania U19 attack 1.09 + Iceland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

45%

level

27%

Romania U19 scores more

28%

Iceland U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

F. Gaspar

18'

T. Tomsa↳ M. Toma

28'

G. Gunnarsson← G. Olsen

34'

A. Stoian↳ M. Toma

46'

R. Hlynsson← V. Vidarsson

46'

A. Techeres← F. Gaspar

46'

S. Chirila← A. Stoian

47'

F. Gudnason

58'

E. Bodo← R. Veres

58'

A. Toroc← T. Tomsa

63'

J. Sigurdsson← T. Kristjansson

64'

M. Toma↳ Y. Pirvu

71'

D. Moisa← Y. Pirvu

79'

A. Arnarsson← V. Dadason

79'

E. Halldorsson← D. Johannesson

Iceland

Romania

1

Ungureanu

2

▼

15

4

13

19

⚽

▼

Tomsa

16

▼

Veres

11

A

▼

Pirvu

20

Necsulesc

9

⚽

▼

Stoian

10

⚽A

1

6

5

4

3

14

▼

Vidarsson

8

▼

Johanness

11

Gudnason

7

▼

Olsen

10

▼

Kristjans

9

▼

Dadason

Manager: Þ. Siggeirsson

28'▲G. Gunnarsson←▼G. Olsen

46'▲R. Hlynsson←▼V. Vidarsson

63'▲J. Sigurdsson←▼T. Kristjansson

79'▲A. Arnarsson←▼V. Dadason

79'▲E. Halldorsson←▼D. Johannesson

Iceland U19 substitutes

12Ingvason2Asgeirsson13Arnarsson15Hlynsson16Halldorsson17Gunnarsson18Arnarsson19Sigurdsson20Karlsson

Manager: Pavel-Adrian Dulcea

46'▲A. Techeres←▼F. Gaspar

46'▲S. Chirila←▼A. Stoian

58'▲E. Bodo←▼R. Veres

58'▲A. Toroc←▼T. Tomsa

71'▲D. Moisa←▼Y. Pirvu

Romania U19 substitutes

12Racasan3Techeres5Moisa6Bodo7Stanciu8Petculescu14Cotor17Chirila18Toroc

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Iceland U19 0–3 Romania U19

Romania U19 beat Iceland U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2025.

Goals: T. Tomsa (18'), A. Stoian (34'), M. Toma (64').

Iceland U19 vs Romania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Iceland U19 0–3 Romania U19