Iceland U19 3–0 Romania U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Romania U19

Í. Sigurgeirsson 72'

A. Hoti 60', 14'

3/29/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Iceland U1945%

×Draw27%

Romania U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchRomania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.04

Iceland U19

1.41

Romania U19

1.04

Iceland U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

1.09

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.45

Romania U19

1.09

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Romania U19

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Romania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Romania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

72%

Iceland U19 or Romania U19

73%

Draw or Romania U19

55%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

22%

Romania U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

76%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

41%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

17%

Romania U19 1+ goals

65%

Romania U19 2+ goals

28%

Romania U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Romania U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Romania U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.45 + Romania U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Romania U19 attack 1.09 + Iceland U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

45%

level

27%

Romania U19 scores more

28%

Iceland U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Hoti

33'

A. Birgisson

35'

D. Andrei← E. Radaslavescu

42'

S. Gisli

45'

46'

H. Karlsson

46'

Ó. Ómarsson← A. Birgisson

50'

R. Ilie

51'

R. Ilie

51'

R. Ilie

58'

A. Chirițoiu← Ș. Bodișteanu

58'

C. Amzăr← G. Dănuleasă

60'

A. Hoti

66'

O. Óskarsson← A. Sigurpálsson

66'

K. Jónsson← A. Lúðvíksson

72'

Í. Sigurgeirsson

73'

A. Hofman← L. Andronache

73'

D. Sîrbu← A. Pandele

75'

D. Djuric← Í. Sigurgeirsson

75'

K. Halldórsson← G. Tyrfingsson

Iceland

Romania

12

Mitrovic

3

▼

2

4

14

20

8

▼

Pandele

7

▼

Radaslave

11

▼

Bodiștean

10

Ilie

15

▼

Andronach

13

Þorkelsso

12

Petersson

18

▼

Tyrfingss

20

⚽

▼

Sigurgeir

2

Pálsson

15

▼

Birgisson

8

▼

Lúðvíksso

4

Karlsson

14

⚽2

Hoti

19

▼

Sigurpáls

3

Gíslason

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

46'▲Ó. Ómarsson←▼A. Birgisson

66'▲O. Óskarsson←▼A. Sigurpálsson

66'▲K. Jónsson←▼A. Lúðvíksson

75'▲D. Djuric←▼Í. Sigurgeirsson

75'▲K. Halldórsson←▼G. Tyrfingsson

Iceland U19 substitutes

7Ómarsson9Óskarsson6Jónsson10Djuric16Halldórsson11Mikaelsson17Heimisson1Arinbjörnsson5Antonsson

Manager: A. Văsâi

35'▲D. Andrei←▼E. Radaslavescu

58'▲A. Chirițoiu←▼Ș. Bodișteanu

58'▲C. Amzăr←▼G. Dănuleasă

73'▲A. Hofman←▼L. Andronache

73'▲D. Sîrbu←▼A. Pandele

Romania U19 substitutes

5Andrei9Chirițoiu19Amzăr18Hofman6Sîrbu22Mihai1Popa17Tănasă16Pîrvulescu