Iceland U19 1–1 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Iceland U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norway U19

E. Guðmundsson 89'

A. Roaldsøy 65' (pen)

7/7/2023

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iceland U1925%

×Draw24%

Norway U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iceland U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.71

Iceland U19

1.14

Norway U19

1.71

Norway U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

1.75

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Iceland U19

1.00

Norway U19

1.67

allows per match

Iceland U19

1.75

Norway U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw

49%

Iceland U19 or Norway U19

76%

Draw or Norway U19

75%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

10%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals

68%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

32%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

11%

Norway U19 1+ goals

82%

Norway U19 2+ goals

51%

Norway U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.00 + Norway U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Norway U19 attack 1.67 + Iceland U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Iceland U19 scores more

25%

level

24%

Norway U19 scores more

51%

Norway U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Roaldsøy

Norway U19 · M

7.9

Match Events

38'

Nikolai Soyset Hopland

45'

Sigurbergur Áki Jörundsson

58'

H. Haraldsson← R. Þorkelsson

58'

G. Nökkvason← G. Þórðarson

58'

O. Sivertsen← H. Skogvold

59'

O. Braude← S. Aas

65'

A. RoaldsøyPenalty

73'

Á. Guðmundsson← S. Jörundsson

73'

J. Bjarnason← A. Birgisson

73'

B. Andrésson← Á. Þorsteinsson

80'

D. Murugesapillai← D. Bassi

83'

E. Blikstad← B. Thoresen

89'

E. Guðmundsson↳ G. Nökkvason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IcelandNorway

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots5

6Corners7

6Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots5

3On Target3

3Off Target1

4Blocked1

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

257Total Passes289

197Accurate Passes215

77%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0