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Iceland U19 vs Norway U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Iceland U19
Iceland U19
CANC
10:00
Norway U19
Norway U19
9/2/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 1Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iceland U1925%
×Draw24%
Norway U1951%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iceland U19
1.14
Norway U19
1.71

Norway U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Iceland U19
1.00
Norway U19
1.67

allows per match

Iceland U19
1.75
Norway U19
1.27

finishing

Iceland U19+0.00on par
Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iceland U19 ↓

Norway U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Iceland U19 or draw
49%
Iceland U19 or Norway U19
76%
Draw or Norway U19
75%

Winning margin

Iceland U19 wins by 2+
10%
Norway U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Iceland U19 1+ goals
68%
Iceland U19 2+ goals
32%
Iceland U19 3+ goals
11%
Norway U19 1+ goals
82%
Norway U19 2+ goals
51%
Norway U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Norway U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iceland U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iceland U19 attack 1.00 + Norway U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Norway U19 attack 1.67 + Iceland U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Iceland U19 scores more
25%
level
24%
Norway U19 scores more
51%

Norway U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iceland U19 vs Norway U19 — Match Preview

Iceland U19 face Norway U19 on September 2, 2020 in this UEFA U19 Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Iceland U19 host Norway U19 at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.