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Ibrachina U20 vs Guarulhos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guarulhos U20
Guarulhos U20
Marcus 74', 69' (pen), 51', 32'
L. Martins 65'
Jeilson 47'
F. Santos 90+2'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ibrachina U2090%
×Draw7%
Guarulhos U203%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibrachina U20
3.98
Guarulhos U20
0.72

Ibrachina U20 creates 453% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ibrachina U20
2.76
Guarulhos U20
0.40

allows per match

Ibrachina U20
1.04
Guarulhos U20
5.20

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par
Guarulhos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 83Under: 1783%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Guarulhos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw
97%
Ibrachina U20 or Guarulhos U20
93%
Draw or Guarulhos U20
10%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
77%
Guarulhos U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
98%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
90%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
73%
Guarulhos U20 1+ goals
51%
Guarulhos U20 2+ goals
16%
Guarulhos U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
97%
Guarulhos U20 (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Guarulhos U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Guarulhos U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 3.98

Guarulhos U20 attack 0.40 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more
90%
level
7%
Guarulhos U20 scores more
3%

Ibrachina U20 at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Marcus
47'
Jeilson
51'
Marcus
65'
L. Martins
69'
MarcusPenalty
74'
Marcus
90+2'
F. Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Ibrachina U20 6–1 Guarulhos U20

Ibrachina U20 beat Guarulhos U20 6-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: Marcus (32', 51', 69' pen, 74'), Jeilson (47'), L. Martins (65'), F. Santos (90+2').

The match was played at Ibrachina Arena in São Paulo, São Paulo.