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Guarulhos U20 vs Ibrachina U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarulhos U20
Guarulhos U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
L. Martins 66'
V. Sanches 29'
6/7/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Carlos Ferracini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guarulhos U2012%
×Draw17%
Ibrachina U2071%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarulhos U20
0.89
Ibrachina U20
2.42

Ibrachina U20 creates 172% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

Guarulhos U20
0.60
Ibrachina U20
1.83

allows per match

Guarulhos U20
3.00
Ibrachina U20
1.17

finishing

Guarulhos U20+0.00on par
Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Guarulhos U20 or draw
29%
Guarulhos U20 or Ibrachina U20
83%
Draw or Ibrachina U20
88%

Winning margin

Guarulhos U20 wins by 2+
4%
Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Guarulhos U20 1+ goals
59%
Guarulhos U20 2+ goals
22%
Guarulhos U20 3+ goals
6%
Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
91%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
69%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos U20 (draw refunded)
15%
Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos U20 at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos U20 attack 0.60 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + Guarulhos U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Guarulhos U20 scores more
12%
level
17%
Ibrachina U20 scores more
71%

Ibrachina U20 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
V. Sanches
55'
C. Santana
66'
L. Martins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Guarulhos U20 0–2 Ibrachina U20

Ibrachina U20 beat Guarulhos U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 7, 2024.

Goals: V. Sanches (29'), L. Martins (66').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Carlos Ferracini in Caieiras, São Paulo.