Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 Sóller: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sóller

G. Simeone 70', 68', 32'

F. Losada 25'

11/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas71%

×Draw19%

Sóller11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchSóller

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.66

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.09

Sóller

0.66

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 217% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 81 away

2.14

creates per match

0.88

0.44

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Sóller

0.88

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Sóller

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Sóller+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Sóller →

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

89%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Sóller

81%

Draw or Sóller

29%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

45%

Sóller wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

88%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

62%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

34%

Sóller 1+ goals

48%

Sóller 2+ goals

14%

Sóller 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

87%

Sóller (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Sóller away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.05 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Sóller defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sóller attack 0.88 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

71%

level

19%

Sóller scores more

11%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Ignacio Sanchez← Marc Esteve

25'

F. Losada

32'

G. Simeone

33'

Manuel Garcia← Toni Huertas

33'

Rafik Laribi← Alex Muñoz

47'

Gorka Ramón← Kike Fajarnes

68'

G. Simeone

70'

David Serrano← Jaume Villar

70'

Juan Carlos← Moreno

70'

Daniel D'Hondt← Joan Carles

70'

G. Simeone

80'

Colo← Dailos Tejera

80'

Pere Mas← Gorka Ramón

Ibiza

Sóller

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

Manager: Alberto Gallego

47'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Kike Fajarnes

70'▲David Serrano←▼Jaume Villar

70'▲Juan Carlos←▼Moreno

80'▲Colo←▼Dailos Tejera

80'▲Pere Mas←▼Gorka Ramón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

RamónSerranoCarlosColoMas

Manager: Álex López

5'▲Ignacio Sanchez←▼Marc Esteve

33'▲Manuel Garcia←▼Toni Huertas

33'▲Rafik Laribi←▼Alex Muñoz

70'▲Daniel D'Hondt←▼Joan Carles

Sóller substitutes

SanchezGarciaLaribiD'Hondt