Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 0–0 Poblense: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Poblense

10/19/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas46%

×Draw27%

Poblense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchPoblense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.03

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.43

Poblense

1.03

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 39% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

2.14

creates per match

1.63

0.44

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Poblense

1.63

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Poblense

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Poblense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Poblense →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

73%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Poblense

73%

Draw or Poblense

54%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

22%

Poblense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

76%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

42%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

17%

Poblense 1+ goals

64%

Poblense 2+ goals

28%

Poblense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

63%

Poblense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Poblense away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Poblense defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Poblense attack 1.63 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

46%

level

27%

Poblense scores more

27%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Melo← Solano

74'

Onofre Riera← Colau

75'

Joan Oller← Mateu

79'

José Arias← Sergi Piña

81'

Jaime Hernández← Víctor Martínez

89'

Pep Vidal← Tià Sastre

Ibiza

Poblense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Pérez

59'▲Melo←▼Solano

74'▲Onofre Riera←▼Colau

79'▲José Arias←▼Sergi Piña

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MeloRieraArias

Manager: Óscar Troya

75'▲Joan Oller←▼Mateu

81'▲Jaime Hernández←▼Víctor Martínez

89'▲Pep Vidal←▼Tià Sastre

Poblense substitutes

OllerHernándezVidal

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Poblense

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and Poblense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Poblense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Poblense