Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Génova: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Génova

Juan Carlos 55'

Omar Álvarez 3'

2/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas73%

×Draw18%

Génova9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchGénova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.56

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.07

Génova

0.56

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 270% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

2.14

creates per match

0.67

0.44

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Génova

0.67

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Génova

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Génova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Génova →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

91%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Génova

82%

Draw or Génova

27%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

47%

Génova wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

61%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

34%

Génova 1+ goals

43%

Génova 2+ goals

11%

Génova 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

89%

Génova (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Génova away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Génova defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Génova attack 0.67 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

73%

level

18%

Génova scores more

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Omar Álvarez

51'

Moreno← David Serrano

55'

Juan Carlos

60'

Iván← Guillem Femenías

60'

Aldo← Julià Ortega

65'

Gorka Ramón← E. Franco

67'

Rodri Bujan← Sergio Roque

74'

Marc Juárez← Vachi

74'

Xavi← Miguel Llabrés

76'

Iván Sales← Juan Carlos

Ibiza

Génova

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Carlos

⚽

Álvarez

▼

Serrano

Manager: Alberto Gallego

51'▲Moreno←▼David Serrano

65'▲Gorka Ramón←▼E. Franco

76'▲Iván Sales←▼Juan Carlos

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MorenoRamónSales

Manager: Quico Alabat

60'▲Iván←▼Guillem Femenías

60'▲Aldo←▼Julià Ortega

67'▲Rodri Bujan←▼Sergio Roque

74'▲Marc Juárez←▼Vachi

74'▲Xavi←▼Miguel Llabrés

Génova substitutes

IvánAldoBujanJuárezXavi