Génova 0–3 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Génova

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Cristian Terán 90+2', 19'

Juan Carlos 88'

11/21/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Camp de Futbol Génova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Génova19%

×Draw22%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GénovaExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.96

Génova

1.03

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.96

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

1.47

creates per match

2.00

1.93

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Génova

1.47

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Génova

1.93

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Génova+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génova ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Génova or draw

41%

Génova or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

78%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

81%

Winning margin

Génova wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Génova 1+ goals

64%

Génova 2+ goals

28%

Génova 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

86%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

58%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Génova (draw refunded)

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Génova at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Génova attack 1.47 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Génova defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Génova scores more

19%

level

22%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

59%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Cristian Terán

46'

Juan Carlos← David Serrano

53'

Aldo← Xavi

53'

Rodri Bujan← Dani Pons

72'

Juan Carbonell← Antonio

72'

Manu Manchado← David Martín

82'

Colo← G. Simeone

85'

Miguel Llabrés← Julià Ortega

88'

Juan Carlos

90'

Gorka Ramón← Onofre Riera

90+2'

Cristian Terán

Génova

Ibiza

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Dani Aparicio

53'▲Aldo←▼Xavi

53'▲Rodri Bujan←▼Dani Pons

72'▲Juan Carbonell←▼Antonio

72'▲Manu Manchado←▼David Martín

85'▲Miguel Llabrés←▼Julià Ortega

Génova substitutes

AldoBujanCarbonellManchadoLlabrés

Manager: Alberto Gallego

46'▲Juan Carlos←▼David Serrano

82'▲Colo←▼G. Simeone

90'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Onofre Riera

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

CarlosColoRamón

Match Recap: Génova vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Génova 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 21, 2020.

Goals: Cristian Terán (19', 90+2'), Juan Carlos (88').

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Génova in Palma de Mallorca.

Génova vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Génova vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas